Global Trends 2030: The NIC's Four Alternative Scenarios for 2030

As the world evolves, uncertainties about the future are becoming more imminent to a point where stakeholders are thinking the impact could become irreversible. Decision- makers are thus advised to think and plan for the long term to mitigate the occurrence of negative futures and foster the positive ones. This will happen by keeping an eye on the trends that are likely to affect the world in the future, which include; individual empowerment, the demographic patterns, diffusion of power, and resources (National Intelligence Council, NIC, 2012).

Individual empowerment will enable people to have greater access to more resources than before. This is a concern to security because as individuals get empowered, the bad guys too gain access to lethal technologies, thus posing a threat to global security through large-scale violence. However, it is surprising to see that Middle East view individual empowerment as a way of fragmenting countries.

Demographic pattern is another interesting trend whose key concern is the aging factor and urban migration whereby economic growth may fall in the aging countries, such as the Western countries (Slaughter, 2013). Aging and migration will determine the economic and political conditions in most countries as the number of youthful populations shrink and migration bring cross-border issues and more security threats.

Moreover, resources abundance and scarcity, such as energy, food and water is likely to change the future. The interesting feat is that if the prices of oil fall, some countries will not be in a position to balance their budget while other countries, such as Pakistan, a drop in oil prices will bring down the cost of living (Slaughter, 2013). Diffusion of power will see developing nations in Africa and Asia surpass North America and Europe in terms of global power. The positive effect of this trend is that there will be hope for countries to develop economically and in terms of security, a feat that was not envisioned 30 years ago (NIC, 2012).

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